Tinubu and his home-girl problem, by Emmanuel Aziken

Associates and praise-singers of President Bola Tinubu who think that the emerging crisis in the Lagos State House of Assembly is no threat to his 26-year dominion over Lagos should better rethink.

Though it now appears as a storm in a teacup, the potential for escalation is very visible. Significantly, this threat to Tinubu is not coming from the political opposition but from some of his closest foot soldiers, including men and women he had trusted with political power.

Yesterday, in the most audacious mockery of Tinubu’s protégée, the recently sacked speaker of the House, Mudashiru Obasa, his replacement, Speaker Mojisola Meranda dismissed him, Obasa as a political comedian.

The comment from Speaker Meranda was significant given the fact that she had all the while kept away from the fray. The nearest we saw of Meranda bringing herself to bear was when Nigerians saw her sobbing after the House passed a vote of confidence on her just before the adjournment.

The sight of the first female speaker of the House sobbing on the seat was emotive. Not only was it a revelation of the almost total rejection of Obasa, but there was also a nostalgic feminine pose that was bound to raise problems for the President and supporters of Obasa.

That problem was compounded on Thursday morning when the police security details of Speaker Meranda were withdrawn, and at the same time, Obasa was reinforced with policemen to enter into the House for his four-man sitting.

The poignant impression of Speaker Meranda being physically exposed apparently brought a conviction to the souls of her antagonists, who by the end of the day restored her security details. They were apparently sober enough to recognize that it was not to be heard that something untoward happened to Meranda because of the amputation of her security infrastructure.

Whatever the case, President Tinubu’s alleged efforts to restore Obasa or bring the Lagos lawmakers to reason is quite understandable.

The removal of Obasa distorted the zoning configuration of the three top political offices in Lagos; Governor, Deputy Governor and Speaker. The three offices had before now been shared with each of the three senatorial zones having one office each.

However, the removal of Obasa from Lagos West and his replacement with Meranda from Lagos Central means that the governor and speaker have been put in Lagos Central with Lagos West getting nothing.

It is even more significant that Lagos West is about the most complex senatorial district in the state and also the most populated. The votes from Lagos West bring about half of the total votes needed to win an election in the state.

Giving the claims that the president requested that Meranda resign for someone from Lagos West, Tinubu is believed to have acted as a father with an eye for all parts of the state. Certainly, he would not want to displease the people of Lagos West, given their sizeable contribution to the electoral votes.

However, his problem now is that the lawmakers from Lagos West have forsworn the office of speaker in favour of Meranda. So the president’s continued pursuit of the strategy of exiting Meranda may have turned into a poisoned chalice for him. It is even more significant that Meranda who is the junior sister of a powerful traditional ruler in the state, is now being galvanized by some Lagos indigenes as the symbol of the battle to disconnect Tinubu from the levers of Lagos politics.

The allegation flying in the air in some quarters is that Obasa who some of his enemies say is not from Lagos, is being held up as the weapon being used to humiliate a home girl.

But whatever, President Tinubu’s choice in siding with Obasa is bad optics for him, especially given repeated assertions of arrogance and highhandedness meted to his fellow lawmakers. How 36 lawmakers can snub Tinubu because of Obasa must speak to his level of insufferable arrogance.

Whatever, many also see another problem for Tinubu ahead of the 2027 round of elections.

It must not be forgotten that Tinubu lost his home state of Lagos in the 2023 presidential election. So, going into the 2027 round of elections with this kind of acrimony will not lead him to the path of electoral recovery in Lagos.

Even more, the kind of rebellion against him in his home state could inspire political associates in other states to also follow the same path of rebellion.

So, as he tries to navigate the path of equity by restoring the office of speaker to Lagos West, the president is no doubt held hostage by two factors; the internal dynamics spilled by the Obasa problem and the quiet emergence of Lagos-for-Lagos activists determined to one way or the other lift the yoke of political servitude to “foreigners.”